Grains and Fibonacci
(ZCH25) (ZWH25) 

The chart below is key to this analysis.

There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.

The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels.

The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about.

Soybeans

(ZSK25) 
Any market that is going to continue with the current trend should stay below either 38.2%, or when there is a strong trend, below 23.6%.

The high back on 5/7/24 could not get above 38.2% on the continuation chart at 1241.00 (high was 1237.00) and the trend continued down to a new low. The next attempt to rally was stopped on 9/30/24 by a combination area of 23.6% on the continuation chart at 1103.00 and 38.2% back to the 11/21/22 high at 1120.00, the high was 1112.25, this also led to new lows. These two retracement levels will come back into play with the current high, but first we will go over how we got here (1090.00).

As we said above, a market needs to hold 38.2% to establish a trend and or keep it. The first sign that the trend was turning was when the market could only setback 38.2% on 1/7/25 at 1000.00. The rally from there made a new high for the current move up and the second setback held the new 38.2% level at 1031.00 on 1/16/25 keeping the new trend intact, this was also a major Gann square. It has now run into the combination of retracements back to the 11/21/22 high (38.2%) and 23.6% on the combination chart at 1091.00. 

This level is the long term swing point and it can send this market back to test, or even make a new low. As always we watch all the retracements on every move to see just how weak, or strong the market is regardless of the longer term target. 

On a setback from here the longer term target is 78.6% back to the low at 984.00. Any setback that holds 38.2% at 1040.00 keeps the short term trend positive and a new high can follow. On a failure to turn lower from 1061.00 look for the 1135.75 major Gann square.

To be clear, all of these levels have been given to our Premium Subscribers before they were hit, they were either the swing point for the week, or the target when holding the swing point.

We have done 45 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.

Here is the latest.  How the Grains put in their Bottom.

ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point

Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.

You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

Sign up for our Free newsletter here.
 

FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.